HERE’S WHAT THEY DON’T TELL YOU
Okay, this is the time of year everyone rolls out their rules to draft by. I am going to tell you, forget about it! If the rules were that easy to follow, drafting wouldn’t be so difficult!
Think about it. Everyone tells you things like draft 2 RBS with your first two picks. Follow that blindly, and you are that, blind. THEY tell you that the difference between the top RB and the 30th RB is this BIG, and the difference between QBS and WRS is THIS small.
Well, that’s great if you could tell me who the top RBS are from 1-30. Can you? Really?
Here is my draft from last year. These are guys picked in the first round and second round. Guys you are supposed to lean on. Trust. Depend on, week to week for big points! Here is where they were drafted in my ten team league, and where they finished ranked for the RB position.
1-Shaun Alexander…actual 28th!
7-Ronnie Brown…actual 25th!
8-Cadillac Williams…39th!
10-Willis McGahee…26th!
12-Lamont Jordan…55th!
13-Edgerrin James…20th!
These were no-brainers last year. Fight it if you like, but they were. In hindsight, why did they fail? Injuries for a couple; faulty expectations for most.
Here is the thing. The same thing could happen this year. So before you say Joseph Addai is a lock in the top 5 and rattle off all the reasons why, understand you could have made the same argument for the Auburn boys last year!
Moral of the story:
Trust those who have performed well over the past 3 years or more. It’s exciting to jump aboard that bandwagon of the next young stud, but buyer-beware. The idea in the first 3 rounds is to reduce risk as much as possible. You win drafts by having production equivalent to those lofty picks, and then with smart, sometimes lucky, selections in the later rounds.
And while that doesn’t mean to avoid RBS if you aren’t sure, it just means to be aware that just because you follow the rules, doesn’t mean your team won’t suck. You can find RBS later. The same rules tell you how big the difference is, right?
Well, did they tell you the RB you took in the 1st round you should have taken in the 10th? Did it tell you the RB you could have stolen in the 10th could be a frontline starter???? No, the rule told you the 30th RB off the board paled in comparison to the top guys at the position.
Here are some guys the fell to the lower end of the pecking order last year. Where they were drafted and how they actually finished ranked last season.
18th round- Maurice Drew…actual rank 8th best!
20th round- Marion Barber…actual rank 14th best!
26th round- Ladell Betts…actual rank 10th best!
16th round- Joseph Addai…actual rank 11th best!
You get the idea. Not to mention guys like Willie Parker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, Chester Taylor, Deuce McAllister, and Ahman Green were all taken 2nd round or later and all were top 15 RBS.
Moral of the story:
If you are picking late in the first round, are forced to choose between Peyton Manning and an unproven RB, well, you can see history says that is mighty risky. Plus, you might end up with a top 10 back in the 2nd round anyway…or maybe even later than that!
I mentioned Peyton Manning. Let’s address that. THEY tell you not to take a QB early. Dime a dozen they say. That is partly true. But like all positions there are tiers. I am a big fan of tiers. The QBS first tier has one name. Peyton Manning. He’s been the top QB the last 3 years, and it’s not even close. He’ll earn you on average 3-4 points more week than the next tier. And the next tier contains some safe picks like Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Marc Bulger, and Tom Brady who will earn about 3-6 points more than the guys in the next tier.
Moral of the Story:
Manning is a stud. He gives you 6-10 point edge every week over the guys everyone is waiting for. He is also the closest thing to a lock. Compared the success rate of RBS taken in his area, he is the better bet. And the safe play.
WRS can be a bit tricky. But with what I warned you about RBS, do you take a run-of-the-mill back in the 2nd round after taking a back in the first round, or do you take a WR? WR scores are relatively close, this is true. But there are clearly some sure bets. Based on their history, there about 10 WRS that are locks for 1000+ yards. If you can guarantee me that, then odds are they are going to score some touchdowns along the way. Last year there were 19 guys over 1000 yards. The year before there were 17. There were ten repeats.
Moral of the story:
Barring injuries, there are some pretty safe bets at WR. You can go out on a limb with a shaky RB in the second or third round, or you could lock up your WR spots with guys like Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt. A RB will be available to you in the 4th round or later that could end up as a top line back. There are far fewer receivers who do that. Of the top 20 WR point leaders last season, only two, Marques Colsten (14) and Mike Furrey (19) were ranked outside the top 30 for WRS going into the draft.
THAT IS WHAT I CALL PRETTY PREDICTABLE!!!!
And those two went undrafted or were draft extremely late, in other words, total surprises. And consider that the only big-time guys that were “failures” at WR were Larry Fitzgerald, Santana Moss, Chris Chambers, and Randy Moss. Those guys were top 15 guys. The first two were bothered by injuries, and all were bothered by shaky quarterback situations. Injuries are hard to project, but shaky quarterback play isn’t.
BOTTOMLINE
Be safe, be smart. Keep an eye on guys progressing, but understand a 2nd year guy may get better, he may not. And injury-prone RBS that stay healthy for one year, well, that is an exception, not a trend. Stick with consistent guys and your team will be more consistent too. It also allows you to draft a steal later, as opposed to safety nets for your risky team.
-Mike Tuck
Tags: 2007, Draft, Fantasy, Football, Mike Tuck, Projections, QB, Quarterback, RB, Running Back, Wide Receiver, WR
