Greg Gammell’s view on the top sleepers and busts for 2007.

SLEEPERS

QB - J. Garcia, Tampa Bay - What Jeff Garcia did last year in Philadelphia last year was no fluke.  In Philadelphia, Garcia was throwing to D. Stallworth and R. Brown.  In Tampa, Garcia will be throwing to J. Galloway and another player that I think with bounce back, M. Clayton.  Garcia will be under the supervision of a coach that will utilize Jeff to his fullest capability.  John Gruden is a smart guy with an West Coast Offensive mind.  Look for Garcia to have a solid year and keep Tampa Bay in playoff contention til the very end. 

QB - E. Manning, New York Giants - Look back at his final stats from last year and you might be surprised, they weren’t bad.

3,244 Total Passing Yards
24 Td’s
18 Int’s

These numbers won’t blow you away, but they are solid numbers for a fantasy QB.  The Giants lost Tiki Barber, but I believe E. Manning will pick up the slack and throw for 28 Td’s this year with fewer Int’s.  I definitely believe E. Manning will silence many critics and produce a top 6 fantasy year among the Qb’s.

RB - W. McGahee, Baltimore - McGahee is a HUGE improvement over J. Lewis.  Baltimore possesses a solid offensive line and a well balanced attack.  This will open up lanes for McGahee.  I believe at year end, McGahee has the potential to be a top 5 fantasy back.  He is worth a pick late in the first round / early second round.

RB - C. Williams, Tampa Bay - Yes, Cadillac will bounce back from his injury plagued year and have a solid season for the Bucs.  Jeff Garcia will provide stability at the Qb position which is something Tampa didn’t have last year.  Cadillac will increase his touches and catch more passes out of the backfield.  Cadillac has a lot of potential so take the chance on this guy in a year where everyone seems to be down on him. 

WR - A. Johnson, Houston - First off, let me start by saying  that I’m not sure M. Schuab is a better QB than David Carr.  Also, the offensive line must improve. But, I believe that A. Johnson’s Td’s will increase this season.  Johnson has another year under his belt and I think the addition of McKardell will help.  Adding A. Green should help the ground attack which in return will help the passing attack.  This will be the year that A. Johnson becomes a legitimate #1 fantasy WR.

WR - D. Jackson, San Francisco - D. Jackson is a #1 WR in the NFL.  D. Jackson is underrated and under appreciated.  Alex Smith has another year under his belt as the starter.  Vernon Davis is going to flourish this year as the 49ers TE.  Alex Smith will find Darrell Jackson, and he will find him often.  The 49ers will make a run into the playoff and surprise a lot of people by how balanced their offensive attack will be.

WR - D. Mason, Baltimore - I look for Mason to back to his old form.  Mason and McNair will go back to their days in Tennessee.  I see Mason having 80 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 7 TD’s this year.

TE - V. Davis, San Fransisco - This is the year that the 49ers offense is back.  Vernon Davis will emerge as an elite TE.  I believe V. Davis will finish 3rd among all TE’s behind Antonio Gates and Todd Heap.

BUSTS

QB - V. Young, Tennessee - Tennessee lost Drew Bennett and T. Henry.  Vince Young will now be the sole focus of every defense that Tennessee faces.  Name me the rest of the Titans WR’s…  WHO will Vince throw to?  Michael Vick was always suppose to take off as a top fantasy QB, but that never happened.  Until Vince has some go to WR’s, don’t tell me he is a fantasy stud.

RB - L. Maroney, New England - I personally believe people are too high on the often injured Maroney.  When healthy, he is a stud.  The problem is that Maroney is never healthy.  He always has nagging injuries.  Now that C. Dillon is gone, Maroney will take all of the punishment.  My guess is that Maroney won’t hold up.

RB - M. Lynch, Buffalo - Lynch was a stud at Cal, but he wasn’t better than McGahee was at Miami.  Lynch won’t post better numbers than McGahee, period.  As long as Losman is the starting QB, defenses will be stocking up against the run and making Losman beat them….  That won’t happen, ever.

WR - M. Colston, New Orleans - I’m not saying that Colston will be a flop, but I don’t see him projected as a top 10 fantasy WR.  I see him having a drop off from last years stats due to the fact that he will be getting every teams #1 CB. 

WR - L. Evans, Buffalo - JP Losman.  Enough said.

WR - R. Moss, New England - Moss is a cancer.  He takes plays off, doesn’t try, and rarely gives 100%.  That won’t float in New England.  I predict that Moss will be cut at some point this season once they realize that the change of scenery wasn’t the fix.

TE - A. Crumpler, Atlanta - This is another easy one.  Joey Harrington.  It’s just that simple.  Harrington hasn’t been successful anywhere.  Mark Atlanta down as another failed Harrington trial.

Tags: 2007, Busts, Fantasy, Football, Greg Gammell, QB, Quarterback, RB, Running Back, Sleepers, TE, Tight End, Wide Receiver, WR

Don’t get caught sleeping on draft day.

UPDATED 08/27/07 

Quarterbacks

Sleeper

Jay Cutler, Denver - Mike Shanahan has a good eye for quarterback talent and he does a great job of putting his quarterbacks in a position to succeed. Cutler has a rocket arm and serviceable talent surrounding him.

Bust

Vince Young, Tennessee – I am having a hard time understanding how Vince Young is rated so highly at the quarterback position. Sure, Young has unlimited potential but not in an offense with unpolished wide receivers and questionable running backs. Expect Young to finish the season with less than 20 touchdowns and an interception total that surpasses it.

Running Backs

Sleepers

Travis Henry, Denver – Henry is one of those guys who is underappreciated as a runner – granted he isn’t a great receiver. If Henry can run for 1,200 yards behind Tennessee’s offensive line it’s not far fetched that he could run for 1,500 and 12 touchdowns for the Broncos. As a matter of fact, he will, you heard it here first.

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota - Adrian Peterson was one of the best selections of the 2007 NFL draft and he is going to be one of the best selections you can make in your fantasy football league drafts as well. Peterson will split time with Chester Taylor for a few weeks but expect Peterson to assume primary ball carrying duties by mid-season. (added on 08/27/07)

Busts

Clinton Portis, Washington – A guy who surprisingly gets more respect than he deserves even though he continues to under perform in Washington. I will go as far as to say that Ladell Betts would be the better option for the Redskins. Portis is also at risk in terms of fantasy potential due to being paired up in the backfield with a second year quarterback who still has a lot to learn about the NFL game.

Shaun Alexander, Seattle - I am surprised to see how high Shaun Alexander is being selected in the various fantasy football drafts I have participated in thus far. Most consider him the 5th - 7th best fantasy running back - I’m guessing this is based on his pre-2006 statistical history. What I saw last year was a slow-footed running back on the downside of his NFL career. I don’t see him posting more than 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns. (added on 08/27/07)

Wide Receivers

Sleepers

Reggie Brown, Philadelphia – Brown is on the verge of entering the upper echelon of wide receivers in the NFL. Very consistent, good route runner with great hands. It doesn’t hurt that he has a pro bowl quarterback throwing darts to him. Expect 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns from Brown in 2007.

Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh - It generally takes 2-3 years for receivers to make an impact in the NFL and Holmes is well on his way entering year two. Holmes reminds me of a mixture, 2 parts Steve Smith and 1 part Marvin Harrison - not bad. Holmes will make for a great pick as a your #3 wide receiver. (added 08/27/07)

Busts

Plaxico Burress, New York Giants – The New York Giants are in trouble this season. Their offense will be exposed with the losses of Tiki Barber and Luke Petitgout. The heat will be on Eli Manning this season and I have a strong hunch that Manning is going to have a hard time getting the ball out. Burress likes to stretch the field and that’s not possible when you have defenses applying constant pressure.

Randy Moss, New England Patriots - This can be summed up in a few words … off to a bad start. Moss has spent more time in the training room than on the field and that doesn’t bode well for building chemistry with quarterback Tom Brady. Wide receiver Donte Stallworth has started building that chemistry I talked about … advantage, Stallworth. (added 08/27/07)

Tight Ends

Sleeper

Vernon Davis, San Francisco – Tight ends usually take two-to-three years on average to make their marks in the NFL and Vernon Davis’s time is now. After dealing with injuries and inconsistencies in 2006, Davis has worked extremely hard during the offseason and it has already shown. This is the year Mr. Joe Public sees why Davis was selected with the #6 pick in the 2006 NFL draft.

Bust

Desmond Clark, Chicago – Clark had a stellar campaign in 2006, but in 2007 he will have to share catches with rookie sensation Greg Olsen. Add to that Clark’s career average touchdowns per season before 2006 of two and that makes this an obvious pick for me.

Tags: 2007, Busts, Fantasy, Football, QB, Quarterback, RB, Running Back, Skip Gibson, Sleepers, TE, Tight End, Wide Receiver, WR