Dan Holtzman weighs in - Roy Williams a top 5 WR.

And the sleepers …

Here are some super-sleepers

Time to dig deep. Forget about telling you I think your 12th rated RB can become a top 10 guy.You already made your mind up for the top of your rankings and even who you’d like to see as starters for your team. I am going to give you some names that you may have never considered drafting until now!Let me add, I play in a league where there are 32 rounds, most of you do not. So some of these names I list will not apply because you league may not be deep enough, but you might want to keep an eye on these guys nonetheless.

QUARTERBACKS

Not as important a task for leagues that start just one. But here are some guys that you may just be able to grab late as backups that could blossom into solid number twos.

Jason Campbell, Washington

Played half a season last year and was very efficient throwing 10 TD’s to ony 6 INT. Also did that with no Clinton Portis and with Santana Moss struggling with injury, not much else on the outside. He has had a great offseason and has shown the ability to grow into the position like he did at Auburn. Look for 20 TD’s and over 2500 yards, a great option as a backup.

Kellen Clemens, NY Jets

A lot of backups obviously have more upside based on if their starter gets hurt, but here is a guy that may not be too far off from winning the job, especially if Pennington struggles out of the gate. Keep an eye on that situation.

Daunte Culpepper, Oakland

Can’t question the upside, that’s the reason I list him. If you take Peyton Manning, you may as well wait on taking a backup QB for as long as possible, and it is very possible that you could sneak Culpepper in the last round. And would you rather have Byron Leftwich, or maybe take a chance that Culpepper bounces back and you suddenly have an asset you can trade?

RUNNING BACK

LaMont Jordan, Oakland

Has the job to himself, lost weight, and gained perspective this offseason. Will get goal line carries and not that you should expect his numbers of two seasons ago, but he could be good for 10 TD’s which at least puts him in the Marion Barber neighborhood, a guy who is going much higher in drafts.

Tatum Bell and Kevin Jones, Detroit

At this hour KJ hasn’t been placed on the PUP, if he is watch Bell. For a team that will be a threat passing, that could open things up for the explosive Bell to put up numbers similar to two seasons ago where he had 1000 yards and 8 TD’s. If KJ isn’t placed on PUP, then he’ll have a chance to carve out a spot before Bell takes over and you could have a committee that cancels this projection out, but I’d still advice you to keep an eye on Jones regardless. He may only play 10 weeks, but he put up 1200 combined yards and 8 TD’s in just 12 games last year and you may “steal” him in the last round by owners wary of him missing the start of the season.

DeAngelo Williams, Carolina

I know he is still the backup, but the Panthers o-line is in better shape this season, and they switched to a zone blocking scheme that should benefit Williams as that is what he ran to success behind at Memphis making him a first round pick. Sooner than later, Williams will take the job from Foster.

Tony Hunt, Philadelphia

Tough runner with some versitility. Drafted out of Penn St and in a position where you don’t think much, but consider Brian Westbrook is a small back and has missed an average of 3 games a year. Hunt will take over before Correll Buckhalter, and could be a nice last round pick that may pay you back sooner than later.

Keep an eye on Ladell Betts (top 10 rusher last year after Portis went down), Anthony Thomas, Jerious Norwood, and Cecil Sapp (could be a real vulcher this year!).

WIDE RECIEVERS

Devery Henderson, New Orleans

Big IF on him staying healthy, but now that he slides into that number two slot, could be a threat as a late pick to be a legit #2 fantasy WR. Marques Colston will draw much more attention with Joe Horn gone, and Henderson could be a big beneficiery.

Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh

Finished last year strong, and is now starting which means more looks his way. Look for close to 1000 yards and 5 TD’s turning him for a late round pick to a solid #3 fantasy WR.

Kevin Curtis, Philadelphia

Has great speed and being only the 4th option in the offense on an offense known for spreading it around, and the fact he’ll face a lot of single coverage, he could easily become a solid option off your bench as a flex position candidate.

Here are some LOOOOOONGER Shots (only if you have a deep league)

Ronald Curry, Oakland- 1100 and 7 just 3 years ago before injuries hit

Joe Jurevicious, Cleveland- a solid guy, strong red zone threat

Brandon Lloyd, Washington- strong bounce back candidate

Jacoby Jones, Houston- youngster maybe starting soon

Greg Jennings, Green Bay- if you are open, Favre will find you

Sidney Rice, Minnesota- explosive at S. Carolina, 15ypc and 23 TD’s in 2 seasons

Laurent Robinson, Atlanta- they love his speed, and much keeping him on the bench

Tab Perry, Cincinnati- sitting in Chris Henry’s spot for 8 games, could be early season surprise

TIGHT ENDS

David Martin, Miami

Athletic and playing in a system with a quarterback where the tight end is a top target. You can take him as a starter in the last round or use a flyer pick on him as a backup who will net you around 600 yards and 3-5 TD’s.

Reggie Kelly, Cincinnati

Especially in the first half of the season where the absence of Chris Henry will require someone else stepping up and being a threat.

DEFENSE

San Francisco

Were top 20 last year and with multiple defensive additions not far-fetched to think they could climb into the top 10.

Carolina

Pretty solid group that fell from top 5 fantasy D out of top 20. Odds are they climb back into the top 10, especially when you consider they play Bucs and Falcons offense twice each.

Jacksonville

Look, defenses outside of Baltimore and Chicago are kind of a crap shoot anyway. Jags defense ranked 27th in fantasy last year in large part to the fact they only recovered 4 fumbles! Are you kidding? Law of averages says they climb back to the league average of 12, which will put them just outside the top 10.

KICKERS

Don’t bother. Take someone who is realible on a good team as late as possible and don’t look back.

Good luck! -Mike Tuck

Don’t let these guys slide in your fantasy football league draft.

Most of us do our homework in advance - bring a cheatsheet to our fantasy football league drafts - have a stack of fantasy football magazines, etc. etc. But how many of us go to our football drafts with a list of picks we target (place a premium on)? Probably not nearly as many.

I personally do. Why? Value.

I would like to share my current list of 10 players I target in every draft for the 2007 season …

Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia - Most fantasy football players don’t put as much of a premium on McNabb as I do. I do believe he will come back to form and put up huge numbers in 2007.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle - High upside, low risk player. Solid, second tier quarterback who can be drafted in the middle rounds.

Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia - An excellent multi-purpose back who will contribute 1,200 - 1,600 yards and 8-10 touchdowns. A healthy Donovan McNabb should help.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville - Has a lot of Barry Sanders in him. Averaged 5.7 yards per carry in his rookie season.

Marvin Harrison, WR, Indianapolis - Year-after-year Marvin Harrison puts up consistently stellar numbers. You know what you’re going to get - that’s all you can ask for when drafting a player in the first 3 rounds.

See how far McNabb, Dunn, Stallworth and rookie Adrian Peterson move up.

It’s August 26th which means we are getting closer to the regular season and better yet gearing up for the last of our fantasy football league drafts. You’ll be surprised to see whose stock rose and by how much - be sure to take note! I added a “CHG” or change column in this version to note each players rank change from my previous cheatsheet. 

This updated cheatsheet is optimized for performance scoring fantasy football leagues. You may also download the more user-friendly, printable Excel version by clicking on the Excel icon. Good luck!

2007 NFL Standings and Predictions

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If I missed anything in this guide, or you have questions or comments, please let me know!

Greg Gammell’s view on the top sleepers and busts for 2007.

SLEEPERS

QB - J. Garcia, Tampa Bay - What Jeff Garcia did last year in Philadelphia last year was no fluke.  In Philadelphia, Garcia was throwing to D. Stallworth and R. Brown.  In Tampa, Garcia will be throwing to J. Galloway and another player that I think with bounce back, M. Clayton.  Garcia will be under the supervision of a coach that will utilize Jeff to his fullest capability.  John Gruden is a smart guy with an West Coast Offensive mind.  Look for Garcia to have a solid year and keep Tampa Bay in playoff contention til the very end. 

QB - E. Manning, New York Giants - Look back at his final stats from last year and you might be surprised, they weren’t bad.

3,244 Total Passing Yards
24 Td’s
18 Int’s

These numbers won’t blow you away, but they are solid numbers for a fantasy QB.  The Giants lost Tiki Barber, but I believe E. Manning will pick up the slack and throw for 28 Td’s this year with fewer Int’s.  I definitely believe E. Manning will silence many critics and produce a top 6 fantasy year among the Qb’s.

RB - W. McGahee, Baltimore - McGahee is a HUGE improvement over J. Lewis.  Baltimore possesses a solid offensive line and a well balanced attack.  This will open up lanes for McGahee.  I believe at year end, McGahee has the potential to be a top 5 fantasy back.  He is worth a pick late in the first round / early second round.

RB - C. Williams, Tampa Bay - Yes, Cadillac will bounce back from his injury plagued year and have a solid season for the Bucs.  Jeff Garcia will provide stability at the Qb position which is something Tampa didn’t have last year.  Cadillac will increase his touches and catch more passes out of the backfield.  Cadillac has a lot of potential so take the chance on this guy in a year where everyone seems to be down on him. 

WR - A. Johnson, Houston - First off, let me start by saying  that I’m not sure M. Schuab is a better QB than David Carr.  Also, the offensive line must improve. But, I believe that A. Johnson’s Td’s will increase this season.  Johnson has another year under his belt and I think the addition of McKardell will help.  Adding A. Green should help the ground attack which in return will help the passing attack.  This will be the year that A. Johnson becomes a legitimate #1 fantasy WR.

WR - D. Jackson, San Francisco - D. Jackson is a #1 WR in the NFL.  D. Jackson is underrated and under appreciated.  Alex Smith has another year under his belt as the starter.  Vernon Davis is going to flourish this year as the 49ers TE.  Alex Smith will find Darrell Jackson, and he will find him often.  The 49ers will make a run into the playoff and surprise a lot of people by how balanced their offensive attack will be.

WR - D. Mason, Baltimore - I look for Mason to back to his old form.  Mason and McNair will go back to their days in Tennessee.  I see Mason having 80 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 7 TD’s this year.

TE - V. Davis, San Fransisco - This is the year that the 49ers offense is back.  Vernon Davis will emerge as an elite TE.  I believe V. Davis will finish 3rd among all TE’s behind Antonio Gates and Todd Heap.

BUSTS

QB - V. Young, Tennessee - Tennessee lost Drew Bennett and T. Henry.  Vince Young will now be the sole focus of every defense that Tennessee faces.  Name me the rest of the Titans WR’s…  WHO will Vince throw to?  Michael Vick was always suppose to take off as a top fantasy QB, but that never happened.  Until Vince has some go to WR’s, don’t tell me he is a fantasy stud.

RB - L. Maroney, New England - I personally believe people are too high on the often injured Maroney.  When healthy, he is a stud.  The problem is that Maroney is never healthy.  He always has nagging injuries.  Now that C. Dillon is gone, Maroney will take all of the punishment.  My guess is that Maroney won’t hold up.

RB - M. Lynch, Buffalo - Lynch was a stud at Cal, but he wasn’t better than McGahee was at Miami.  Lynch won’t post better numbers than McGahee, period.  As long as Losman is the starting QB, defenses will be stocking up against the run and making Losman beat them….  That won’t happen, ever.

WR - M. Colston, New Orleans - I’m not saying that Colston will be a flop, but I don’t see him projected as a top 10 fantasy WR.  I see him having a drop off from last years stats due to the fact that he will be getting every teams #1 CB. 

WR - L. Evans, Buffalo - JP Losman.  Enough said.

WR - R. Moss, New England - Moss is a cancer.  He takes plays off, doesn’t try, and rarely gives 100%.  That won’t float in New England.  I predict that Moss will be cut at some point this season once they realize that the change of scenery wasn’t the fix.

TE - A. Crumpler, Atlanta - This is another easy one.  Joey Harrington.  It’s just that simple.  Harrington hasn’t been successful anywhere.  Mark Atlanta down as another failed Harrington trial.

Grab some attention in your league.

You are getting set to draft your team, or you just finished. Something is missing. What?

Your team needs an identity. How do you do that? With your team name!!!

So what makes a good team name? A lot of things do. And truthfully, it’s whatever you make of it. I am here to give you ideas, not necessarily team names, but ideas that will make you go, “That’s it!”

MOVIES

Pop Culture films are always a great source. Sometimes the lines from the movies are greater than the movies themselves.

Star Wars- any variation of the many characters you might like
Anchorman- Gotta love the Sex Panthers!
Old School- so many great one liners at your disposal
Wedding Crashers-ditto
Gladiator- any war movie work, violence is good!
Kill Bill- cool characters
300

SEX

Anything sexual always gets a rise out of your cohorts in your league. Body parts, actions, and jokes work. Making fun of someone else in your league is always great too! If you have something to brag about, do it! My personal favorite is the “Pie Slammers.” A great spin off of that one is my favorite fraternity, “Slamma Lotta Pie.”

NICKNAMES

I can’t tell you what these could be. It could be self gloss. It could be something you like that someone else gave you. It could be a play off a nickname, something you can twist into trash talk.

FAVORITE TEAM

I am not a fan of a guy who is a Steelers fan calling his team the Steelers. But if you can be creative, say calling your team the “Terrible Towels,” that could work. Think outside the box. Boring sucks. And it doesn’t have to necessarily be NFL teams.

TRASH TALK

A favorite for many. Give yourself a name that not only angers the fantasy gods, but also will fire up everyone in your league and makes them want to beat you to smithereens! You can call out someone in your league, something like “John’s my bitch,” or perhaps something more subtle. Heck, you can change it every week depending on who you are playing.
Remember with this one though, it helps if you WIN.

ANIMALS

Easy one. Pick your favorite, or pick one that is unusual and attach a liner to it. For example, “Mighty Minnows.” Be funny, be bold. Try to stay away from simple ones like dogs and cats.

TOPICAL NEWS

This could be anything. Turn on “E” or Comedy Central for great ideas. Making fun or celebrities is also an eye catcher. Also it could be sports, baseball topics like Barry Bonds or steroids. Basketball things like gambling. Or even football things like Mike Vick or Pac-Man Jones.

MUSIC

A catchy line from your favorite song or a play on that group’s name will work. Be careful not to make it too long though.

HOMETOWN

Basically, where are you from? Teams are named where they are from, plus mascot, right? You can do the same! It can be your country, your state, your county, your city, your hood, or whatever.

Hope some of these ideas helped. If you have any of your own, post them below!!!

-Mike Tuck

HERE’S WHAT THEY DON’T TELL YOU

Okay, this is the time of year everyone rolls out their rules to draft by. I am going to tell you, forget about it! If the rules were that easy to follow, drafting wouldn’t be so difficult!

Think about it. Everyone tells you things like draft 2 RBS with your first two picks. Follow that blindly, and you are that, blind. THEY tell you that the difference between the top RB and the 30th RB is this BIG, and the difference between QBS and WRS is THIS small.

Well, that’s great if you could tell me who the top RBS are from 1-30. Can you? Really?

Here is my draft from last year. These are guys picked in the first round and second round. Guys you are supposed to lean on. Trust. Depend on, week to week for big points! Here is where they were drafted in my ten team league, and where they finished ranked for the RB position.

1-Shaun Alexander…actual 28th!
7-Ronnie Brown…actual 25th!
8-Cadillac Williams…39th!
10-Willis McGahee…26th!
12-Lamont Jordan…55th!
13-Edgerrin James…20th!

These were no-brainers last year. Fight it if you like, but they were. In hindsight, why did they fail? Injuries for a couple; faulty expectations for most.

Here is the thing. The same thing could happen this year. So before you say Joseph Addai is a lock in the top 5 and rattle off all the reasons why, understand you could have made the same argument for the Auburn boys last year!

Moral of the story:
Trust those who have performed well over the past 3 years or more. It’s exciting to jump aboard that bandwagon of the next young stud, but buyer-beware. The idea in the first 3 rounds is to reduce risk as much as possible. You win drafts by having production equivalent to those lofty picks, and then with smart, sometimes lucky, selections in the later rounds.

And while that doesn’t mean to avoid RBS if you aren’t sure, it just means to be aware that just because you follow the rules, doesn’t mean your team won’t suck. You can find RBS later. The same rules tell you how big the difference is, right?

Well, did they tell you the RB you took in the 1st round you should have taken in the 10th? Did it tell you the RB you could have stolen in the 10th could be a frontline starter???? No, the rule told you the 30th RB off the board paled in comparison to the top guys at the position.

Here are some guys the fell to the lower end of the pecking order last year. Where they were drafted and how they actually finished ranked last season.

18th round- Maurice Drew…actual rank 8th best!
20th round- Marion Barber…actual rank 14th best!
26th round- Ladell Betts…actual rank 10th best!
16th round- Joseph Addai…actual rank 11th best!

You get the idea. Not to mention guys like Willie Parker, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, Chester Taylor, Deuce McAllister, and Ahman Green were all taken 2nd round or later and all were top 15 RBS.

Moral of the story:
If you are picking late in the first round, are forced to choose between Peyton Manning and an unproven RB, well, you can see history says that is mighty risky. Plus, you might end up with a top 10 back in the 2nd round anyway…or maybe even later than that!

I mentioned Peyton Manning. Let’s address that. THEY tell you not to take a QB early. Dime a dozen they say. That is partly true. But like all positions there are tiers. I am a big fan of tiers. The QBS first tier has one name. Peyton Manning. He’s been the top QB the last 3 years, and it’s not even close. He’ll earn you on average 3-4 points more week than the next tier. And the next tier contains some safe picks like Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Marc Bulger, and Tom Brady who will earn about 3-6 points more than the guys in the next tier.

Moral of the Story:
Manning is a stud. He gives you 6-10 point edge every week over the guys everyone is waiting for. He is also the closest thing to a lock. Compared the success rate of RBS taken in his area, he is the better bet. And the safe play.

WRS can be a bit tricky. But with what I warned you about RBS, do you take a run-of-the-mill back in the 2nd round after taking a back in the first round, or do you take a WR? WR scores are relatively close, this is true. But there are clearly some sure bets. Based on their history, there about 10 WRS that are locks for 1000+ yards. If you can guarantee me that, then odds are they are going to score some touchdowns along the way. Last year there were 19 guys over 1000 yards. The year before there were 17. There were ten repeats.

Moral of the story:
Barring injuries, there are some pretty safe bets at WR. You can go out on a limb with a shaky RB in the second or third round, or you could lock up your WR spots with guys like Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt. A RB will be available to you in the 4th round or later that could end up as a top line back. There are far fewer receivers who do that. Of the top 20 WR point leaders last season, only two, Marques Colsten (14) and Mike Furrey (19) were ranked outside the top 30 for WRS going into the draft.

THAT IS WHAT I CALL PRETTY PREDICTABLE!!!!

And those two went undrafted or were draft extremely late, in other words, total surprises. And consider that the only big-time guys that were “failures” at WR were Larry Fitzgerald, Santana Moss, Chris Chambers, and Randy Moss. Those guys were top 15 guys. The first two were bothered by injuries, and all were bothered by shaky quarterback situations. Injuries are hard to project, but shaky quarterback play isn’t.

BOTTOMLINE

Be safe, be smart. Keep an eye on guys progressing, but understand a 2nd year guy may get better, he may not. And injury-prone RBS that stay healthy for one year, well, that is an exception, not a trend. Stick with consistent guys and your team will be more consistent too. It also allows you to draft a steal later, as opposed to safety nets for your risky team.

-Mike Tuck

What do you think the outcome would be?

 I was forwarded an email today with a photo of the Michael Vick jury and I had to post it to the site - Gary Varvel is good. If only true justice could be served … 

Source: http://blogs.indystar.com/varvelblog/index.html